The Phases Of Denial In A Job Search

Elisabeth Kubler-Ross wrote in her book, On Death and Dying, her observations of the phases individuals go through when confronted with the news that they are dying. Sometimes, when we are first let go or no activity is occurring in the job search or we are recently turned down for that exciting opportunity that we were so excited about, we may feel the same way.

The phases are:

1.     Denial – “This can’t be happening.”

2.     Anger – “Why is this happening to me? It’s not fair!”

3.     Bargaining – “I’ll go to church every Sunday if…”

4.     Depression – “I don’t care anymore. I’m going to die anyway, what’s the point in trying.”

5.     Acceptance – “I can’t fight it, it will be okay; I’m ready.”

One of my financial advisors, Doug Casey, recently wrote in a daily dispatch (www.caseyresearch.com) that the average investor will go through the following five phases as our current economic crisis unfolds:

1.     Denial – “This can’t be happening.”

2.     Denial – “This can’t be happening.”

3.     Denial – “This can’t be happening.”

4.     Denial – “This can’t be happening.”

5.     Denial – “This can’t be happening.”

Whichever response you may be having, we appear to be in a unique time when traditional methods are no longer working.

I heard that Albert Einstein once said, “The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over and expect different results.”

Are you finding yourself fitting one of these descriptions? What are you doing about it?

Being Positive is Good. Ignoring Reality is Not

Have a great Thanksgiving?  We did.

Now everyone has gone home and it’s “HiHo, HiHo, It’s Back to Work We Go” (from Snow White).

However, it will be easy to fall into the trap that Christmas is coming soon, so why bother job hunting, developing relationships, or finding new clients?

Two reasons. First, despite some news reports and the stock market rise, the global scenario continues to worsen. One of my investment advisors sent me this link: http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html. PLEASE take a look. It shows more than I can express in words.

Think the stock market rise is good news? Have you checked the price of gold over the past three years? Rising gold prices indicates inflation or the expectation of inflation. I personally ignore government inflation reports. They, just as unemployment numbers, are “spun” and “redefined” to meet political goals. Don’t believe gold? Try taking a look at the value of the US dollar versus the Euro over the past three years. What do you find?

It does not matter if the stock market goes up 20% if the value of the US Dollar does down by 40%. It is a wealth illusion. You think you are getting wealthier when you are really losing true wealth. What counts is what can you buy for the US dollar. The answer is less and less.

So, rising unemployment and decreasing dollar values (no matter how you measure it) is a red flag.

Think of an approaching hurricane. If a red flag is flying on the beach, would you get your house ready for the storm? The storm is already here. The only question is whether the peak of the storm will be a category 1 or a category 5 level impact.

I urge you to take serious review of what is going on around us. Perhaps a drastic action, like turning off a football game, is necessary.

Use the facts that you discover as motivation to focus 150% of your time becoming more competitive (a stronger house). Decide what you will do and do it. This is not like buying exercise equipment that latter becomes a clothes hanger. Every effort and dollar spent will pay off in dividends in surviving the storm and being even more prosperous once the storm passes.

What do you see as the economic and employment picture over the next 12 months? 24 months? 36 months?

WSJ: Life on Severance: Comfort, Then Crisis

On page one of the November 10^th issue of the WSJ, an overview was done on how several executives have responded to their unemployment.

The first executive was a small bank CEO, age 44, with prior income over $200k, a $200k severance package, and savings of $100k. He chose to look for a job without changing his lifestyle. In normal times, that risk would be low. In six months, he will be out of money.

The second executive was an executive director of marketing with only $20k to live on. Her condo has not sold. She used to make $140k. Now she is blasting out resumes hoping to land a $70k job – without results.

The third executive is an advertising executive. He has a young family, received a $60k severance, and is now down to his last $600. They are selling their assets for a fraction of their value just to make ends meet.

The fourth executive has always lived a discliplined life and kept his lifestyle under his income level. Even he is now open to contract work and lower paying jobs – if he can get one.

Think these stories are uncommon? Although most are embarrassed to admit it, I hear them all the time.

So, what is the answer?

First, there are no guarantees. But in every one of these cases they were pursuing jobs with methods that used to work but no longer work. The odds of them getting a job is like playing the lottery or going to gamble. Yet they are following the “advice of experts” who are experts at the old way of looking for work. Are there better ways that work today? Of course, but unless you are willing to take a different path you will likely have a similar story. You will have plenty of company.

Second, the answer means you have to be willing to change and adapt to today’s world. No one can really help you until you first decide to help yourself.

Third, you have to find someone to help you. Most unemployed can only offer limited help to each other. Whether you look at Job Doctors International as an option is up to you, but I strongly encourage you to find someone who understands what is going on and be willing to invest in getting help.

One thing is certain. If you don’t change, the risks are high of you becoming a statistic like those in the WSJ story.

My Opinion About The Growing Unemployment Storm

First, even in today’s modest 10.2% unemployment, many high performing executives are seeing fewer opportunities, receiving fewer recruiter calls, and seeing entire industries shrinking.

There is an old saying, “Hope for the Best. Prepare for the Worst.”

There are three major choice that people can make.

Choice 1: Don’t change a thing. Assume all will be well and soon resume to normal. Be positive.

Choice 2: Pull back all discretionary expenses. Hide out at work, hoping no one will see you and lay you off. Sell your house and move into an apartment. Sell your car and buy a used Yugo.

Choice 3: Realize that the world is changing and change with it. Prepare for the storm Take advantage of the change to get ahead of the competition. Find opportunities to excel and to win. There are always two side of a coin. Invest in the winning side.

My recommendation is Choice 3.

What are the Implications to You with High Unemployment?

We have all heard the saying that, “A recession is when those around me are out of work. A depression is when I am out of work.”

If the current unemployment trends continue for years, what are the implications for you?

First, do you think that unemployment is not an issue? Do you think that the American economy will recover to its robustness of 2006? Do you think that no action is necessary because everyone is over blowing the situation? If so, you may want to make limited changes and live with the lifestyle and expectations that you have always had. After all, even in a depression, some people seem to do very well.

Or, are you looking around in your neighborhood and seeing houses being foreclosed and more neighbors becoming unemployed? Are you fearful that you might not get a job or that you might lose your job? What might happen to you and your family if you lose your job or cannot get a job? Is this just a few month phenomena or could it be a major issue?

In Florida, when a hurricane approaches, some people stay behind live as usual hoping for the storm to go around them. Others stay behind and prepare for the storm – being thankful if it does go around them. Some prepare the home and then try to get out of the path of the storm.  What would you do?

What are you doing about the perfect storm that we are seeing develop in the labor markets?

My unemployment rate best guess

Yesterday we asked your opinion about real and reported unemployment rate trends. Today, I will share my opinion and why I am making my guess. Next week, I ask you what the implications might be. The next post will be my opinion.

So, where are the rates going?

In my opinion, the real peak will exceed 30%. I don’t have a clue what the government will be reporting. Too many factors and changes can impact a “reported” number. That means close to one out of three people will be unemployed, underemployed, or have quit looking.

How long will it take to get to a real peak of 30%?

My guess is 1-2 years, but it could take a little longer or happen very quickly.

When will real unemployment return to under 10% or under 5%?

My guess is that will not happen for years. If it happens sooner, I will be surprised but very happy!

Why do I have such a grim view? What is the basis for my reasoning?

The answer is a combination of economics, politics, and demographics. From an economic viewpoint, unless you stimulate small business to be able to profitably grow, they will not hire. 70% of historic job growth was through small business. Right now, small business is being hit with less consumer spending, less credit liquidity, increased global competition, and higher taxes.

From a political perspective, our government is passing socialist legislation that will increase taxes, increase oversight and regulation, and further depress consumer spending.

From a demographic perspective, the available labor force is increasing (retirees re-entering, laid off employees, continuing outsourcing to other countries, and college graduates). Meanwhile, close to half of the U.S. population have come to expect (demand) higher government benefits which continue to raise government debt and the need to increase taxes.

This is a perfect storm.

You cannot stop a storm. You can prepare to weather the storm and come out ahead.  What are you doing to prepare for the storm?

Where is the Unemployment Rate Going?

Last Friday, November 6, 2009, the official U.S. unemployment number was 10.2%. In January, the stimulus package was passed with the promise that unemployment would not exceed 8%. I wrote in my newsletter in January 2009 that the rate would exceed 10%, with potentially a lot more to come.

Fox news suggests that the real unemployment is now ranging between 18-20%. Real, as opposed to reported, which includes those who have quit looking for work or under-employed. You can see why politicians like the official number. In some states the statistics are far grimmer.

So, here are the questions:

• How high do you think the reported unemployment will go?
• How high do you think the real unemployment will go?
• When will real unemployment return to under 10%?
• When will real unemployment return to 5%?
• What is the basis for your reasoning?

The Old Ways Don’t Seem to Work Anymore

Increasingly I am hearing, “The world has changed, and the old ways don’t seem to work anymore.” I agree and disagree.

Why do I agree? I talk to hundreds of professionals who are looking for jobs, trying to move up the ladder, or trying to make their business grow. Here are some reasons that I have heard from others:

• Recruiters used to call us with a job opportunity. I don’t get many calls today.

• I used to just update my resume and send it out. I would have calls and interviews coming my way. Today, I seldom hear anything.

• When I was up for a job and was a close fit, I would get a job offer.

• I used to tell my mentors that I needed some work. Today, they have retired.

• I am getting some interviews and offers but they are lower paying, lower levels, and less responsibility than I had before.

• I am doing everything I am told to do.  I look at job boards. I cold call. I network. I tell everyone I need help. Nothing seems to be working!

What are your friends telling you that they are seeing?

The World has changed

The world seems much different than it was even three years ago. Here are a few observations that I have seen:

Bank and financial services are continuing to be in trouble. A recent Financial Times newspaper suggested that 1,000 U.S. banks might fail within the next year. A few years ago, bankers were making huge salaries and bonuses. Businesses with poor credit could get money. Financing houses, cars, and new ventures was easy. Today, credit is tight. Even well qualified borrowers are finding borrowing to be painful or less readily available.

U.S. government debt used to be fairly manageable. Today, it looks out of control. When I was growing up, the word “millions” was beyond my comprehension. Then we went to “billions.” Today, the word “trillions” is tossed around as no big deal. The impact will continue to heavily hamper the economy, the value of the dollar, employment, business capital, and many other risks.

I could go on all day but I do not believe the world has stopped changing. I suspect that not only will it not go back to the way I remember it, but that change will continue. With change comes opportunity – but only to those who are willing to change with it.

What do you think? Is the world getting better for business, career growth, and employment?  If so, how and why do you see it happening?

Opportunities surround us

We are often limited by our backgrounds, situations, and priorities. We may be an accounts payable clerk who cannot imagine how we are any different than any other accounts payable clerk. We may be tightening our family budget and losing our house, so we cannot imagine investing in self improvement to compete in the marketplace. We might insist that our family time, sports, and other activities must have priority over looking for work, performing at work, or selling.

The opportunities lie in determining:

• How an accounts payable clerk can help a company not lose money through fewer duplicate payments, stretching out payment a little longer to non-critical suppliers, automating or improving the process to increase productivity, consolidating many bills into one payment, or suggesting contingency based third party auditors to recover funds that belong to the company, and much more.
• How defensive actions now, like foregoing less critical expenses and even selling your house and renting for a season, can give you the ability to survive and invest in your future.
• How having a family meeting to discuss today’s realities and working as a family to allow the bread winners more time to keep a job, get a promotion, or sell more by prioritizing events and recognizing that challenging times require different approaches to help the family survive and thrive.

Every crisis brings opportunities to those who are willing to look for them.

I have heard that many large businesses in the U.S. were started during the Great Depression by those with the vision to see and grab the opportunities around them.

What opportunities are surrounding you?

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